PREDICTION OF ETIOLOGICAL RISK FACTORS FOR CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN CHILDREN: AN EVIDENCE-BASED STRATIFICATION APPROACH

Abstract

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in children is a progressive, multifactorial disorder that often remains clinically silent until advanced stages. Delayed recognition significantly increases the risk of irreversible renal damage and progression to end-stage renal disease. According to the World Health Organization, chronic non-communicable diseases are among the leading causes of long-term morbidity worldwide, and early risk identification is critical for improving outcomes (World Health Organization [WHO], 2023).

This study aims to analyze etiological risk factors associated with CKD in children and to develop a theoretical framework for early risk prediction using evidence-based stratification models. A systematic review of international guidelines and peer-reviewed literature was conducted, including recommendations from Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO, 2024) and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE, 2023).

The findings indicate that congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT), recurrent urinary tract infections, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and exposure to nephrotoxic agents are the primary determinants of CKD progression (KDIGO, 2024; Levey & Coresh, 2012). Risk stratification models allow classification of pediatric patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories, improving early detection and preventive intervention strategies.

The study concludes that integration of clinical, laboratory, and epidemiological data significantly enhances predictive accuracy and supports early prevention of CKD progression in pediatric populations.

KEYWORDS: Chronic kidney disease; children; risk factors; prediction models; CAKUT; hypertension; diabetes mellitus; risk stratification; nephrology.