FORECASTING THE INTEGRATION POTENTIAL OF FARMS INTO INTERNATIONAL MARKETS UP TO 2032: A COMPLEX INTEGRAL INDEX AND ARIMA-BASED SCENARIO APPROACH

Abstract

The paper develops a methodology for forecasting the potential of farms to integrate into international markets, combining a complex integral index, an ARIMA time-series model, and scenario analysis. Eight indicators—export value, export volume, cooperative membership, share of certified farmers, innovation, logistics, market infrastructure, and digitalization—are normalized by the Min–Max method and aggregated with equal weights into an International Market Integration Index (IMI). The dynamics of the IMI are projected to 2032 using the best-fitting ARIMA(1,1,0) model, selected by the AIC and BIC criteria, after which baseline, optimistic, and innovative development scenarios are constructed. Using data for the fruit-and-vegetable farms of the Samarkand region (Uzbekistan), the IMI is shown to rise from 0.000 in 2020 to a projected 1.000 by 2032, while export value grows from USD 180 million to USD 465 million. The results provide a quantitative basis for strategic decisions on developing export cooperatives and deepening farms’ integration into global value chains.